Meeting Kassar International Conference "New International Geopolitics"

On March 6, 2014, Kassar International organized a conference on International Geopolitics and to deal with this theme, we had the immense honor of receiving Mr. Pascal Chaigneau.

A report of his remarks can only disappoint so much this man, by his knowledge and his personality, knew how to captivate his audience. We will, however, attempt to trace as best we can the thread of his thought and knowledge.

The Dynamics of the Arab World

Mr. Chaigneau began by explaining the dynamics of the Arab world and the major issues in the Middle East that remain hot topics of the day. The revolutions we have witnessed in these countries are revolutions of poor countries. All the rentier countries, from Algeria to Saudi Arabia, bought themselves social peace and a status quo with their petro and gas dollars and worse, when they could not buy it, they imposed it. This was the case of the Kingdom of Bahrain, for example.

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Morocco and Jordan are the only two poor countries where there have been no insurrectionary phenomena to deal with. Morocco owes its social peace to Meksen governance. King Mohamed VI reigns but does not govern. It is the Meksen, under the guise of a parliamentary system, that has more power than the official government. However, the situation in Jordan is more complex because, although calm for the moment, this country, which has become the spillover of the Syrian crisis, could soon experience a social crisis in its turn. Indeed, Jordan has become the receptacle of all Saudi funding and all the subsidies of the Gulf monarchies, to try to bring down Asad. Today, Jordan's king is so aware of his fragility that he is not only asking countries like France for help, but is also turning to the Chinese People's Armed Police to build an urban law enforcement center that resembles a highly armed military camp in many ways.

In the face of these various scenarios, one country stands out-Qatar, which has positioned itself as the proselytizer of the system. It overcompensates for its micro-territoriality with overactivity. So much so that on March 5, 2014 Kuwait, The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia withdrew their embassies from Doha in order to signal to Qatar their weariness with the latter's proselytizing.

Let us now turn our attention to the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. For Tunisia, the outcome is more positive than what we feared even three months ago. The reason is simple; it is a professor of HEC, Mr. Moncef Cheikhrouhou, who took in hand the constituent assembly. In the medium term, Tunisia has assets to start again in a democratic and stable framework. If we take the case of Egypt, the situation is totally different; it is no longer a country that has an army, it is an army that has a country. The military in power wanted to eradicate the brotherhoods. To do this, they applied the following strategy: Identify, Discredit, Eradicate.

If we look at the uprisings in Yemen and Syria. In the case of Yemen, it was an uprising of poor people recovered, financed and manipulated by Saudi Arabia to put the most accommodating Yemeni tribe in power with the aim of dismembering the country. Because Yemen has water, fertile land, natural gas, which makes it the nightmare of the Saudis. What Saudi Arabia has never accepted is that Yemen was complicit in the invasion of Kuwait by Sadam Hussein. Since one week ago, Yemen has become a federated state with six entities, which makes Yemen a weakened state with a weakened central power. When we look at Syria, the borders we knew no longer exist. The country is totally fragmented by the different military authorities that rule over the regions of the country.

As for the situation of Turkey and Israel, we realize that the relations between these two countries are paradoxical. On the one hand Turkey wants to sell the AKP model to the Arab world that it colonized for almost 500 years, so in an attempt to make it forget, Turkey's national sport becomes criticism of the state of Israel. For its part, Israel finds in the Egyptian state a new strategic ally.

The Dynamics of Africa

France was the leading country 10 years ago on relations with Africa. We are now the 6th client, 5th supplier, 4th investor on a continent where we were the leader everywhere. What we can say about African countries such as Libya or Mali is that wars are made and orchestrated by the support of external countries, but the consequences are not assumed at all.

Chad is the French army's contact on African territory. Chad feels emboldened and the Chadian dictator thinks he has no limits. However, Chad no longer has a hand in the diamond mines, the dictators he placed in power in the surrounding countries turn their backs on him and as a result Chad feels betrayed. The immediate sanction was to return to Central Africa and eliminate Mr. Bozizé from power. As a result and in this precise context, Chad is both the source of the Central African problem and the only possible remedy. China, for its part, has already begun to finance African guerrillas. In fact, there is an ethnic group in southern Somalia called the Juba, who are neither identified as Somalis nor as Kenyans, but who are in a strategic geographical location for the transit of oil from southern Sudan to the United States. China has realized that in order to parasitize the construction of the Pipeline and make the delivery of oil through the northern pipes dependent, it is necessary to finance the independence of the population of Juba under the pretext of creating a state of their own.

There is also the fact that the oil is being shipped through the northern pipes.

There are also things that are going well on the African continent, such as the wars that are stopping in the DRC or the Ivory Coast. This continent has not overexploited its resources and it is the continent that will experience the strongest growth in 2014, which makes it the most coveted continent in the world.

Finally, South Africa will soon lose its status as the most successful state in Africa because with 40% of the black population unemployed, the Born and free generation and a generational impatience, social or political crisis will soon erupt.

The Dynamics of Asia

Afghanistan is not under American control; its future will be shaped by Pakistan. States, through their physical and military presence, are trying to win the energy stakes of this country. Thus, we observe a China-Russia coalition against the United States and the exit of the latter from Afghanistan will deprive them of a bridgehead in Central Asia. We can therefore foresee that once the Americans are out of Central Asia, the next clashes will take place between Russia and China. Indeed, Russia is beginning to wonder if by allying with China they are not building and solidifying their next enemy.

If we look at the main elements of change, we see that the big break for Japan is its rearmament. Moreover, if China does not agree with Japan, it becomes its alibi to rearm. As for North Korea, the situation is frozen because none of the actors want it to change, even if they claim the contrary. The real crisis is yet to come and will take place in the South China Sea when the Chinese have the military weaponry to forcibly occupy that space.

Latin America

This continent is the only one that has successfully eradicated war and gone from a monetary crisis to significant growth. Of all the independent armed forces present in Latin America at the beginning of the century only one remains: the Farcs, but they are in the process of being exhausted. However, there are still some bad economic students, but from a political point of view the situation has really stabilized.

Russia

The Ukraine crisis comes at the right time for the Russians who have been waiting for 20 years for a pretext to recover Crimea. The Russians created a military base in Moldova in 1992 with the idea that it would one day be used to recover Ukraine. Moreover, with global warming, Russia can now exploit territories that were once under the ice.

The United States

Although Americans thought of themselves as the regulators of the planet, they realized that dominating did not mean controlling. The Americans dominated the world, they did not control it, and we are rediscovering energy frontiers that are beyond the control of the United States.